{"id":819810,"date":"2026-07-30T12:45:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T04:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=819810"},"modified":"2026-07-30T12:45:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T04:45:13","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%83%8a%e7%8e%b0%e4%b8%89%e4%ba%ba%e5%8f%9b%e5%8f%98%ef%bc%8c%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e9%81%ad%e9%81%87%e4%bf%a1%e7%94%a8%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%ef%bc%9f%e5%86%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=819810","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u60ca\u73b0\u201c\u4e09\u4eba\u53db\u53d8\u201d\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u906d\u9047\u4fe1\u7528\u5371\u673a\uff1f\u51b3\u8bae\u805a\u71265\u5927\u8981\u70b9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>\u6c47\u901a\u8d22\u7ecfAPP\u8baf\u2014\u2014<\/b><a href='http:\/\/news.fx678.com\/column\/fed' target='_blank' rel=\"noopener\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>\u5468\u4e09\u5982\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u5728\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u51fa\u660e\u786e\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u4eae\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6c83\u4ec0\u8bd5\u56fe\u9610\u660e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u601d\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=https:\/\/upload.fx678img.com\/upload\/ht\/20240807\/sy_2024080711485898.jpg alt=\"\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u60ca\u73b0\u201c\u4e09\u4eba\u53db\u53d8\u201d\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u906d\u9047\u4fe1\u7528\u5371\u673a\uff1f\u51b3\u8bae\u805a\u71265\u5927\u8981\u70b9\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u672c\u5468\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u8981\u70b9<\/h2>\n<p><b>1. \u201c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5185\u90e8\u4e89\u8bba\u201d\u518d\u73b0<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff09\u4e2d\u6709\u4e09\u4eba\u6295\u7968\u53cd\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u52a0\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u8981\u6c42\u6765\u4e00\u573a\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e89\u8bba\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u613f\u4ee5\u507f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u201d\u201c\u540c\u4e8b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u660e\u663e\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u201d\u6240\u6709\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u5747\u6765\u81ea\u5730\u533a\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff1a\u8fbe\u62c9\u65af\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6d1b\u91cc\u00b7\u6d1b\u6839\uff08Lorie Logan\uff09\u3001\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u4ec0\u5361\u91cc\uff08Neel Kashkari\uff09\u548c\u514b\u5229\u592b\u5170\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u8d1d\u4e1d\u00b7\u54c8\u9a6c\u514b\uff08Beth Hammack\uff09\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b64\u524d\u7684\u8868\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b>2. \u58f0\u660e\u4f9d\u65e7\u7b80\u77ed<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u8be6\u7ec6\u5217\u51fa\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\u5916\uff0c\u58f0\u660e\u5185\u5bb9\u57fa\u672c\u672a\u53d8\uff0c\u4ecd\u6bd4\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ee5\u5f80\u58f0\u660e\u77ed\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u53ea\u9648\u8ff0\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u523b\u610f\u907f\u514d\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u5ba1\u614e\u4e4b\u4e3e\u3002\u201d\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6e05\u6670\u5ea6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>3. \u575a\u51b3\u6297\u51fb\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4f46\u2026\u2026<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u6c83\u4ec0\u518d\u6b21\u5f3a\u8c03\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u63d0\u9192\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u516c\u4f17\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u6218\u6597\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8f7b\u677e\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u9b54\u6cd5\u68d2\u3002\u201d\u201c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u51e0\u5929\u6216\u51e0\u5468\u5c31\u80fd\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>4. \u5e02\u573a\u201c\u9020\u53cd\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u6001\u5ea6\u5f3a\u786c\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5374\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e70\u8d26\u3002\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u7b56\u654f\u611f\u76842\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5219\u6709\u6240\u56de\u843d\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u89e3\u8bfb\u662f\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u4eec\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a7\u5236\u77ed\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5f15\u53d1\u5927\u91cf\u901a\u80c0\u300230\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6da8\u5e45\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u4e0a\u534711.5\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u81f35.211%\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b2007\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u6c83\u4ec0\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u6597\u58eb\u201d\u7684\u4fe1\u8a89\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b>5. \u5bf99\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u6beb\u65e0\u6697\u793a<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ece\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u57289\u670815-16\u65e5FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u7ebf\u7d22\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u83b7\u3002\u58f0\u660e\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u53cd\u5e94\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u63d0\u793a\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u5728\u8868\u6001\u65f6\u4e5f\u76f8\u5f53\u542b\u7cca\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u8ba4\u771f\u5bf9\u5f85\u51cf\u5c11\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u8fc7\u6e21\u671f\u3002\u6539\u9769\u5e76\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u5224\u65ad\u5c06\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5c65\u884c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u804c\u8d23\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bf4\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h2>\n<p>\u6c83\u4ec0\u8bc4\u8bba\u4ed6\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u6c1b\u56f4\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u4f1a\u8c08\u5230\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51fa\u73b0\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5929\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e4b\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6211\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u5e26\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u4f46\u90fd\u613f\u610f\u5377\u8d77\u8896\u5b50\u8fdb\u884c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e89\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u6e34\u671b\u6539\u9769\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Evercore ISI\u5168\u7403\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u592e\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u4e3b\u7ba1\u514b\u91cc\u5e0c\u7eb3\u00b7\u53e4\u54c8\uff08Krishna Guha\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u9762\u4e34\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4fe1\u8a89\u8003\u9a8c\/\u9677\u9631\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u662f9\u6708\u800c\u4e0d\u662f7\u6708\u3002\u5982\u679c\u590f\u5b63\u901a\u80c0\u548c\/\u6216\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u5f62\u52bf\u76f8\u5bf9\u706b\u70ed\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u7ef4\u62a4\u4fe1\u8a89\u3002\u5173\u952e\u533a\u522b\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c9\u6708\u5728\u5e7f\u4e49\u4e0a\u662f\u6570\u636e\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\uff0c\u800c7\u6708\u5219\u66f4\u591a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u504f\u597d\u3002\u201d\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n<p>Fwdbonds\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u00b7\u9c81\u666e\u57fa\uff08Chris Rupkey\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u6c83\u4ec0\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5bf9\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6240\u4f20\u9012\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u4fe1\u53f7\u89c6\u800c\u4e0d\u89c1\u3002\u8bf7\u7ee7\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u6539\u9769\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u3002\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u60f3\u8981\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u5374\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u83b7\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u8bae\u7ea2\u7ebf\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a\u6c83\u4ec0\u4efb\u5185\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efd\u58f0\u660e\u6709\u4f55\u53d8\u5316<\/h2>\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u5468\u4e09\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff09\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u7aa5\u89c1\u4e86\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6c9f\u901a\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u9762\u8c8c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5468\u4e09FOMC\u58f0\u660e\u4e0e6\u6708\u4e0a\u6b21\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\u58f0\u660e\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u4ece6\u6708\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5220\u9664\u7684\u6587\u5b57\u4ee5\u7ea2\u8272\u5e76\u52a0\u5220\u9664\u7ebf\u6807\u793a\u3002\u65b0\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6587\u5b57\u4ee5\u7ea2\u8272\u5e76\u52a0\u4e0b\u5212\u7ebf\u6807\u793a\u3002\u9ed1\u8272\u6587\u5b57\u5219\u5728\u4e24\u4efd\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5747\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=https:\/\/upload.fx678img.com\/upload\/ht\/20260730\/sy_2026073008375971.png alt=\"\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u60ca\u73b0\u201c\u4e09\u4eba\u53db\u53d8\u201d\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u906d\u9047\u4fe1\u7528\u5371\u673a\uff1f\u51b3\u8bae\u805a\u71265\u5927\u8981\u70b9\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5468\u4e09\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u8fd9\u4efd\u58f0\u660e\u662f\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4efb\u5185\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efd\u6b64\u7c7b\u58f0\u660e\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u627f\u8bfa\u5c06\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5411\u516c\u4f17\u4f20\u8fbe\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u9884\u671f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u5927\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n<p>6\u6708\u7684\u4e0a\u4e00\u4efd\u58f0\u660e\u5df2\u521d\u6b65\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u6c83\u4ec0\u638c\u8235\u4e0b\u6c9f\u901a\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b>\u6839\u636e\u5bf9\u5386\u6b21\u58f0\u660e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c6\u6708\u58f0\u660e\u7ea6\u6709130\u4e2a\u5355\u8bcd\uff0c\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e2d\u8d85\u8fc7300\u4e2a\u5355\u8bcd\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5b83\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709FOMC\u6210\u5458\u7684\u6295\u7968\u4fe1\u606f<\/b>\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e24\u9879\u90fd\u662f\u524d\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u00b7\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\uff08Jerome 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