{"id":811347,"date":"2026-07-07T14:29:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T06:29:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=811347"},"modified":"2026-07-07T14:29:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T06:29:18","slug":"%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97%e6%9c%ba%e6%9e%84%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4%e5%8f%8c%e9%87%8d%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%ef%bc%9a%e8%ad%a6%e6%83%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=811347","title":{"rendered":"\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u673a\u6784\u8b66\u544a\u7f8e\u80a1\u9762\u4e34\u201c\u53cc\u91cd\u6ce1\u6cab\u201d\u5371\u673a\uff1a\u8b66\u60d5\u865a\u9ad8\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u5267\u70c8\u9707\u8361"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97\" title=\"View all posts in \u534e\u5c14\u8857\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u534e\u5c14\u8857<\/a>\u591a\u4f4d\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c<a 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href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%ae%9e%e4%bd%93%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e\" title=\"View all posts in \u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/a>\u652f\u6491\u7684\u957f\u671f\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u82f1\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c\" title=\"View all posts in \u6295\u8d44\u94f6\u884c\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u6295\u8d44\u94f6\u884c<\/a>Panmure Liberum\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u6700\u65b0\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff08Shiller CAPE\uff09\u5df2\u9ad8\u8fbe\u7ea641\u500d\uff0c\u903c\u8fd125\u5e74\u524d\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9876\u70b9\u3002\u5c24\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7f8e\u80a1<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e4%b8%8a%e5%b8%82%e5%85%ac%e5%8f%b8\" title=\"View all posts in \u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8<\/a>\u7684\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5df2\u504f\u79bb\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\u8fbe1.8\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3002\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u82e5\u5c06\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u589e\u901f\u8c03\u6574\u81f3\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5c06\u6025\u5267\u81a8\u80c0\u81f367.6\u500d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u503c\u5c06\u504f\u79bb\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\uff0c\u5f7b\u5e95\u8d85\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u6b21\u5cf0\u503c\u3002Panmure Liberum\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u7ea6\u963f\u5e0c\u59c6\u00b7\u514b\u83b1\u95e8\u7279\uff08Joachim 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Berezin\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u865a\u9ad8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u589e\u957f\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5177\u6709\u6781\u5f3a\u7684\u6b3a\u9a97\u6027\uff0c\u57282007\u5e74\u81f32008\u5e74\u5168\u7403<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba\" title=\"View all posts in \u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u7206\u53d1\u524d\u5915\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u4f4f\u5b85\u5efa\u7b51\u5546\u4e5f\u66fe\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u201c\u76c8\u5229\u6ce1\u6cab\u201d\u3002\u8d1d\u96f7\u6d25\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u901a\u5e38\u6781\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\u76c8\u5229\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u9876\u90e8\uff0c\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u7b49\u5177\u5907\u5178\u578b\u7e41\u8363-\u8427\u6761\u5468\u671f\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u89c1\u9876\u5e76\u5f15\u53d1\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u5927\u76d8\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u8fbe30%\u81f350%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u54a8\u8be2\u673a\u6784Damped Spring Advisors\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u5b89\u8fea\u00b7\u5eb7\u65af\u5766\uff08Andy Costan\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u8d44\u6df1\u6295\u8d44\u4e13\u5bb6\u5409\u59c6\u00b7\u4fdd\u5c14\u68ee\uff08Jim Paulsen\uff09\u7b49\u4e1a\u5185\u4eba\u58eb\u65e5\u524d\u4e5f\u516c\u5f00\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4e50\u89c2\u76c8\u5229\u9884\u671f\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u652f\u6491\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u7b14\u4e0b\u5982\u6b64\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u84dd\u56fe\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e09\u5927\u80a1\u6307\u5728\u5468\u4e00\u6536\u76d8\u65f6\u518d\u5ea6\u9006\u52bf\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<span><a href=\"https:\/\/stock.finance.sina.com.cn\/usstock\/quotes\/.DJI.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-sudaclick=\"content_marketkeywords_p\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9053\u743c\u65af<\/a><\/span><span><\/span>\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6570\u9996\u6b21\u6536\u4e8e53000\u70b9\u4e0a\u65b9\uff0c\u4f46\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u91cd\u7533\uff0c6\u6708\u4efd\u4ee5\u6765\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u677f\u5757\u7b49\u6743\u91cd\u80a1\u7684\u5bbd\u5e45\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u5df2\u63d0\u524d\u91ca\u653e\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u80fd\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u89c1\u9876\u7684\u8b66\u793a\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<p>  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/tgdata\/zw_account_stock.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>                                                                                                     <\/p>\n<p>\u8d23\u4efb\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u9f99\u8fd0\u7fd4 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u591a\u4f4d\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5b58\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u7531\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u70ed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":[],"categories":[4],"tags":[195,264,148,142,191,253,241,141,88,367,41],"views":5,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/811347"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=811347"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/811347\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=811347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=811347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=811347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}