{"id":809103,"date":"2026-07-02T22:11:47","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T14:11:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=809103"},"modified":"2026-07-02T22:11:47","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T14:11:47","slug":"%e5%a4%9a%e6%95%b0%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%90%88%e7%ba%a6%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e9%87%8f%e4%bd%8e%e8%bf%b7%ef%bc%8c%e7%94%a8%e6%88%b7%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e5%89%a7%e7%83%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=809103","title":{"rendered":"\u591a\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u9762\u4e34\u4ef7\u683c\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4ea4\u6613\u98ce\u9669"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u8981\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c2021 \u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74 5 \u6708\u672b\uff0cPolymarket \u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u7ea6 70% \u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u603b\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u4e0d\u8db3 1 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8584\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73b0\u4ef7\u683c\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7531\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<div><img src=\"https:\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/\/n.sinaimg.cn\/finance\/transform\/59\/w550h309\/20260702\/565e-5f56294ebd9e9696b8c6710d79cd4534.png\" alt=\"\u591a\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u9762\u4e34\u4ef7\u683c\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4ea4\u6613\u98ce\u9669\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \"><span>Kalshi\u3001Polymarket \u4e24\u5927\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u53f0<\/span><\/div>\n<p>\u81ea\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u53f0 Polymarket \u7684\u6574\u4f53\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u8fce\u6765\u7206\u53d1\u5f0f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5728 2024 \u5e74<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u56fd\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a>\u5927\u9009\u3001\u53bb\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u671f\u95f4\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u66f4\u662f\u5927\u5e45\u51b2\u9ad8\u3002\u4f46\u8be5\u5e73\u53f0\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5df2\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u540d\u4e49\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u4ece\u672a\u7a81\u7834 1 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f9d\u6258 Polymarket \u7684 Gamma \u63a5\u53e3\u6570\u636e\u5c55\u5f00\u5206\u6790\uff1a2021 \u5e74\u81f3 2026 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u672b\uff0c\u5e73\u53f0\u5185<strong>70% \u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u603b\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u4e0d\u8db3 1 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff0c\u8be5\u7edf\u8ba1\u53e3\u5f84\u4f1a\u540c\u65f6\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e70\u5356\u53cc\u5411\u4ea4\u6613\u91d1\u989d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ec5\u6709\u4e0d\u5230 10% \u7684\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u843d\u5728 10 \u4e07\u81f3 100 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000<\/p>\n<div><img src=\"https:\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/\/n.sinaimg.cn\/finance\/transform\/109\/w550h359\/20260702\/8aee-21a6065e3dae78813ee1a74ea2dcf8f3.png\" alt=\"\u591a\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u9762\u4e34\u4ef7\u683c\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4ea4\u6613\u98ce\u9669\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \"><span><\/span><\/div>\n<p>\u3000\u5e73\u53f0\u5185\u8d85 4.5 \u4e07\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\uff08\u63a5\u8fd1\u5168\u90e8\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\u5e02\u573a\u7684 5%\uff09\u5168\u7a0b\u96f6\u6210\u4ea4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%8c%ba%e5%9d%97%e9%93%be\" title=\"View all posts in \u533a\u5757\u94fe\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u533a\u5757\u94fe<\/a>\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u5e73\u53f0 Dune \u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u793a\uff0cPolymarket \u7684\u7ade\u54c1 Kalshi \u540c\u6837\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8584\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u548c Polymarket \u7684 Gamma \u7edf\u8ba1\u89c4\u5219\u4e0d\u540c\uff0cKalshi \u5728 Dune \u4e0a\u62ab\u9732\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u4ec5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5355\u8fb9\u4ea4\u6613\u91d1\u989d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u5eb7\u65af\u5766\u4e01\u30fb\u6bd4\u5c14\u5409\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u6700\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\u6781\u6613\u5927\u5e45\u9707\u8361\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u8584\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u7279\u5f81\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u7b14\u5c0f\u989d\u8d44\u91d1\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u64ac\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u663e\u8457\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u201d \u6bd4\u5c14\u5409\u5728\u63a5\u53d7 \u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8bf4\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fbe\u7279\u8305\u65af\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u57c3\u91cc\u514b\u30fb\u9f50\u8328\u7ef4\u8328\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u65b0\u624b\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u6781\u6613\u906d\u53d7\u635f\u5931\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u5dee\u4f1a\u6025\u5267\u62c9\u5927\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u9ad8\u6574\u4f53\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5bf9\u8d44\u6df1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4e0d\u8db3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u540c\u6837\u5f88\u96be\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u719f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u9752\u7750\u3002<\/p>\n<p>26 \u5c81\u7684\u6d1b\u6839\u30fb\u82cf\u5fb7\u601d\u6b64\u524d\u4efb\u804c\u91d1\u878d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9\" title=\"View all posts in \u98ce\u9669\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u98ce\u9669<\/a>\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u79cb\u5929\u5f00\u59cb\u5168\u804c\u6295\u8eab\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u66f4\u504f\u7231\u77ed\u671f\u3001\u9ad8\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7528\u6548\u7387\u4f1a\u9ad8\u5f88\u591a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5728 Polymarket \u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u5b58\u7eed\u5468\u671f\u4e00\u5468\u4ee5\u5185\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8bde\u751f\u4e86\u6700\u591a\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u7834\u767e\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u591a\u56f4\u7ed5\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e8b\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae\" title=\"View all posts in \u7279\u6717\u666e\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7279\u6717\u666e<\/a>\u3001\u57c3\u9686\u30fb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%a9%ac%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b\" title=\"View all posts in \u9a6c\u65af\u514b\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u9a6c\u65af\u514b<\/a>\u76f8\u5173\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8bbe\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u77ed\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u53c2\u4e0e\u4eba\u6570\u4f17\u591a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u53d7\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u9752\u7750\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fbe\u7279\u8305\u65af\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u9f50\u8328\u7ef4\u8328\u6559\u6388\u4e0a\u6708\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u53c2\u4e0e\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u9ad8\u3001\u5927\u91cf\u7528\u6237\u624e\u5806\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u503e\u5411\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u679c\u5373\u5c06\u843d\u5730\u7684\u6807\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<div><img src=\"https:\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/\/n.sinaimg.cn\/finance\/transform\/191\/w550h441\/20260702\/0112-196e86213a308981932c99148d8c6f94.png\" alt=\"\u591a\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u9762\u4e34\u4ef7\u683c\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4ea4\u6613\u98ce\u9669\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \"><span><\/span><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u5784\u65ad\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5723\u5730\u4e9a\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7ea6\u4e66\u4e9a\u30fb\u5fb7\u62c9\u30fb\u97e6\u591a\u74e6\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u5728 Polymarket \u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u4f4e\u4e8e 1 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c<strong>\u8d85 80% \u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u6765\u81ea\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u5668\u4eba<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6559\u6388\u5c06\u5355\u65e5\u4ea4\u6613\u8d85 50 \u7b14\u3001\u7d2f\u8ba1\u603b\u4ea4\u6613\u7b14\u6570\u8d85 1000 \u7b14\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u94b1\u5305\u5730\u5740\u5224\u5b9a\u4e3a\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u8d26\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u8be5\u6807\u51c6\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c2022 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u81f3 2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u5728\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8584\u5e02\u573a\u7d2f\u8ba1\u83b7\u5229\u7ea6 120 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u5728\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u8d85\u5343\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad8\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u7d2f\u8ba1\u76c8\u5229 3510 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5fb7\u62c9\u30fb\u97e6\u591a\u74e6\u4f9d\u6258 Polymarket \u94fe\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u5728\u5404\u7c7b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5747\u80fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u666e\u901a\u6563\u6237\u65e0\u8bba\u5728\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8fd8\u662f\u9ad8\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u591a\u5904\u4e8e\u4e8f\u635f\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u8584\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4efd\u989d\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4ef7\u683c\u4e25\u91cd\u504f\u79bb\u516c\u5141\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6781\u7aef\u5355\u8fb9\u64cd\u4f5c\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u989d\u4e8f\u635f\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u4f4d\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u5723\u5730\u4e9a\u54e5\u5206\u6821\u7684\u6559\u6388\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff1a\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u76f8\u6bd4\u51b7\u6e05\u7684\u8584\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u66f4\u504f\u597d\u9ad8\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5927\u76d8\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4f9d\u9760\u5355\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5fae\u8584\u4ef7\u5dee\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4f18\u5148\u9009\u62e9\u5927\u578b\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8986\u76d6\u6240\u6709\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u5c55\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u4e89\u8bae<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e1a\u5185\u4e13\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8584\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Evercore ISI \u6295\u884c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5\" title=\"View all posts in \u7b56\u7565\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7b56\u7565<\/a>\u56e2\u961f\u68b3\u7406\u4e86 Polymarket\u3001Kalshi \u4e24\u5927\u5e73\u53f0\u4e94\u5e74\u95f4\u6240\u6709\u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u9ad8\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e24\u5927\u5e73\u53f0\u4ec5 8% 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target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u534e\u5c14\u8857<\/a>\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84\" title=\"View all posts in \u6295\u8d44\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u6295\u8d44<\/a>\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5145\u5206\u53c2\u8003\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u4f46\u5355\u4e00\u5e02\u573a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u5176\u91ca\u653e\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4fe1\u53f7\u65e0\u6548\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8ba4\u5b9a\u8be5\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53c2\u8003\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket \u65b9\u9762\u62d2\u7edd\u5bf9\u672c\u6b21 \u7684\u8c03\u7814\u7ed3\u679c\u7f6e\u8bc4\uff0cKalshi 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\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u7ea6 70% \u5df2\u5b8c\u7ed3\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u603b\u6210 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