{"id":803001,"date":"2026-06-22T21:09:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T13:09:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=803001"},"modified":"2026-06-22T21:09:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T13:09:09","slug":"%e9%9d%9e%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e7%b9%81%e8%8d%a3%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e7%bc%94%e9%80%a0%e8%80%85%e4%b8%8e%e5%8f%8d%e6%80%9d%e8%80%85%ef%bc%9a%e6%a0%bc%e6%9e%97%e6%96%af%e6%bd%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=803001","title":{"rendered":"\u201c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u8363\u201d\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u7f14\u9020\u8005\u4e0e\u53cd\u601d\u8005\uff1a\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u7684\u767e\u5e74\u4f20\u5947\u4e0e\u9057\u4ea7"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>\u636e\u65b0\u534e\u793e\u63f4\u5f15<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u56fd\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%aa%92%e4%bd%93\" title=\"View all posts in \u5a92\u4f53\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u5a92\u4f53<\/a>22\u65e5\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\u827e\u4f26&middot;\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u4eab\u5e74100\u5c81\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5728\u56db\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u4e94\u6b21\u8fde\u4efb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u81ea1987\u5e74\u88ab\u7f8e\u56fd\u65f6\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u91cc\u6839\u9996\u6b21\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u8001\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u514b\u6797\u987f\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5c0f\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u65f6\u671f\u8fde\u7eed\u83b7\u5f97\u8fde\u4efb\uff0c\u76f4\u81f32006\u5e741\u670831\u65e5\u6b63\u5f0f\u9000\u4f11\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4f7f\u4ed6\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4efb\u804c\u65f6\u95f4\u7b2c\u4e8c\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u57281951\u5e74\u81f31970\u5e74\u95f4\u4efb\u804c\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9a6c\u4e01\uff08William McChesney Martin\uff09\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u6267\u638c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5e26\u9886\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u8fc7\u4e8620\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%bb%84%e9%87%91\" title=\"View all posts in \u9ec4\u91d1\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u9ec4\u91d1<\/a>\u7e41\u8363\u671f\uff0c\u8fd8\u6210\u529f\u5ea6\u8fc7\u4e86\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u7834\u88c2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u524d\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u4ea4\u901a\u5927\u5b66\u4e0a\u6d77\u9ad8\u7ea7\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u80e1\u6377\u6b64\u524d\u63a5\u53d7\u7b2c\u4e00\u8d22\u7ecf\u8bb0\u8005\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u79f0\uff0c\u4ece\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff09\u5171\u670912\u4f4d\u62e5\u6709\u6295\u7968\u6743\u7684\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4ec5\u67091\u7968\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5bf9\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e8%b4%a7%e5%b8%81\" title=\"View all posts in \u8d27\u5e01\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u8d27\u5e01<\/a>\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u6709\u9650\u3002&ldquo;\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2a\u4eba\u5a01\u671b\u4e0e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e4%b8%9a%e7%bb%a9\" title=\"View all posts in \u4e1a\u7ee9\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u4e1a\u7ee9<\/a>\u4f7f\u5f97\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u5458\u5f80\u5f80\u5c0a\u91cd\u5176\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u5e38\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4e0e\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u65f6\u671f\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002&rdquo;\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4ece\u5b66\u672f\u6bbf\u5802\u5230\u653f\u575b&ldquo;\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6c99\u7687&rdquo;\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u4e8e1926\u5e743\u67086\u65e5\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%ba%bd%e7%ba%a6\" title=\"View all posts in \u7ebd\u7ea6\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7ebd\u7ea6<\/a>\u5e02\u7684\u534e\u76db\u987f\u9ad8\u5730\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u81ea\u5e7c\u4fbf\u5c55\u9732\u51fa\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5929\u8d4b\u3002\u4ed6\u968f\u540e\u8fdb\u5165\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u653b\u8bfb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e8e1948\u5e74\u548c1950\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u5b66\u58eb\u548c\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u524d\u5f80\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6df1\u9020\u5e76\u653b\u8bfb\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e08\u4ece\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u8457\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u540c\u6837\u5728\u540e\u6765\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7684\u963f\u745f&middot;\u4f2f\u6069\u65af\uff08Arthur F. Burns\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1953\u5e74\u79bb\u5f00\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u540e\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5e76\u9010\u6b65\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97\" title=\"View all posts in \u534e\u5c14\u8857\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u534e\u5c14\u8857<\/a>\u548c\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5efa\u7acb\u58f0\u8a89\u30021967\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u51fa\u4efb\u5c3c\u514b\u677e1968\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u7ade\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u9996\u6b21\u6d89\u8db3\u653f\u575b\u3002\u5728\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u603b\u7edf\u6267\u653f\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e3a\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b\u51b3\u7b56\u54a8\u8be2\u30021974\u5e74\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u8f9e\u804c\u540e\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u8d70\u5411\u5e55\u524d\uff0c\u5728\u798f\u7279\u653f\u5e9c\u4e2d\u51fa\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u4efb\u804c\u81f31977\u5e74\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u4fdd\u7f57&middot;\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\uff08Paul Volcker\uff09\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7d27\u7f29\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5f62\u6210\u5408\u529b\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f53\u65f6\u9ad8\u8fbe11%\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u8170\u65a9\u81f36.5%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1977\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5361\u7279\u653f\u5e9c\u4efb\u671f\u4f0a\u59cb\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u91cd\u8fd4\u7ebd\u7ea6\u7684\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u6df1\u8015\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u62c5\u4efb\u517c\u804c\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u8be5\u6821\u6b63\u5f0f\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1987\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u91cc\u6839\u51b3\u5b9a\u5bfb\u627e\u4eba\u9009\u63a5\u66ff\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\u65f6\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u518d\u5ea6\u91cd\u8fd4\u653f\u5e9c\u670d\u52a1\u3002\u5728\u91cc\u6839\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efb\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u7684\u63d0\u540d\u4e8e1987\u5e748\u670811\u65e5\u83b7\u5f97\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u6b63\u5f0f\u6279\u51c6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u7531\u6b64\u51fa\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\u7b2c13\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u4e0a\u4efb\u4ec5\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u65f6\uff0c1987\u5e7410\u670819\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u7206\u53d1\u4e86\u9707\u60ca\u4e16\u754c\u7684&ldquo;\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00&rdquo;\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u65af\u5de5\u4e1a\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6570\u5355\u65e5\u66b4\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc722%\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b\u8be5<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e8%93%9d%e7%ad%b9%e8%82%a1\" title=\"View all posts in \u84dd\u7b79\u80a1\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u84dd\u7b79\u80a1<\/a>\u6307\u6570\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5355\u65e5\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\uff0c\u5916\u754c\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u8d85\u51e1\u51b3\u65ad\u529b\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fc5\u901f\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u786e\u4fdd\u5e02\u573a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u6781\u5927\u5730\u7f13\u89e3\u4e86<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84\" title=\"View all posts in \u6295\u8d44\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u6295\u8d44<\/a>\u8005\u7684\u6050\u614c\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u5145\u8db3\u8d44\u91d1\u4ee5\u51cf\u8f7b\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u51b2\u51fb\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u80a1\u5e02\u8fc5\u901f\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u4e5f\u6b63\u56e0\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u90a3\u65f6\u8d77\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u8361\u65f6\u671f\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u6765\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u652f\u6301\u7684\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u88ab\u4e1a\u5185\u5f62\u8c61\u5730\u51a0\u540d\u4e3a&ldquo;\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743&rdquo;\uff08Greenspan put\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4ed6\u7684&ldquo;\u9ec4\u91d1\u65f6\u4ee3&rdquo;\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8fc5\u901f\u8d70\u51fa\u9634\u973e\uff0c\u66f4\u8fce\u6765\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u81ea\u7531\u653e\u4efb\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e89\u8bae\u4e0e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba\" title=\"View all posts in \u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u7684\u4e16\u7eaa\u53cd\u601d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u6392\u65a5\uff0c\u5e76\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u63a8\u884c\u4e86\u6781\u4f4e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u6beb\u65e0\u975e\u8bae\uff0c\u6279\u8bc4\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u73b0\u8c61\u4ea4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%88%bf%e5%9c%b0%e4%ba%a7\" title=\"View all posts in \u623f\u5730\u4ea7\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u623f\u5730\u4ea7<\/a>\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4ed6\u79bb\u4efb\u540e\uff0c\u8be5\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u7ed9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u707e\u96be\u6027\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57282007\u81f32008\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u540e\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u8fc7\u5f80\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u7b56\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5404\u754c\u6781\u5176\u4e25\u683c\u5ba1\u89c6\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u5b98\u5458\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u4e3a\u8fd9\u573a\u5d29\u6e83\u57cb\u4e0b\u4e86\u7978\u6839\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u66fe\u57281996\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u8fc7\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u79f0&ldquo;\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u7e41\u8363&rdquo;\uff08irrational exuberance\uff09\u6b63\u8fc7\u5ea6\u63a8\u9ad8\u80a1\u5e02\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5374\u672a\u80fd\u654f\u9510\u5730\u5bdf\u89c9\u523021\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u66f4\u4e3a\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u623f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%9c%b0%e4%ba%a7\" title=\"View all posts in \u5730\u4ea7\" target=\"_blank\" 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href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae\" title=\"View all posts in \u7279\u6717\u666e\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7279\u6717\u666e<\/a>\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5c55\u5f00\u5211\u4e8b\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u8036\u4f26\u3001\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\u548c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u7b7e\u7f72\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u58f0\u660e\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u5211\u4e8b\u8c03\u67e5\u4f01\u56fe\u5229\u7528\u68c0\u65b9\u8c03\u67e5\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u3002\u58f0\u660e\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80\" title=\"View all posts in \u901a\u80c0\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u901a\u80c0<\/a>\u5f62\u52bf\u548c\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fd0\u884c\u5e26\u6765\u6781\u4e3a\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\u4e3e\u62a5<\/div>\n<div>\n<h4>\u6587\u7ae0\u4f5c\u8005<\/h4>\n<ul> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yicai.com\/author\/100000574.html\"><\/p>\n<li>\n<p>\u9ad8\u96c5<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<p><\/a><\/ul>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u636e\u65b0\u534e\u793e\u63f4\u5f15\u7f8e\u56fd\u5a92\u4f5322\u65e5\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\u827e\u4f26&middot;\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u4eab\u5e74100\u5c81\u3002 \u683c\u6797 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