{"id":776210,"date":"2026-05-09T19:17:55","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T11:17:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=776210"},"modified":"2026-05-09T19:17:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T11:17:55","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e8%82%a1%e7%81%ab%e7%88%86%e8%a1%8c%e6%83%85%e5%be%88%e5%bf%ab%e7%bb%93%e6%9d%9f%ef%bc%9f%e8%b5%84%e6%b7%b1%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%b8%88%e5%88%97","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=776210","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u80a1\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u201c\u706b\u7206\u884c\u60c5\u201d\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff1f\u8d44\u6df1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5217\u56db\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u529b\u8bc1\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8fd1\u9636\u6bb5\u518d\u6b21\u706b\u7206\uff0c\u4f46<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u56fd\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a>\u4e00\u4f4d\u8d44\u6df1<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84\" title=\"View all posts in \u6295\u8d44\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u6295\u8d44<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5\" title=\"View all posts in \u7b56\u7565\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7b56\u7565<\/a>\u5e08\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff1a\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u592a\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u957f\u671f\u770b\u6da8\u5e02\u573a\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%8d%8e%e5%b0%94%e8%a1%97\" title=\"View all posts in \u534e\u5c14\u8857\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u534e\u5c14\u8857<\/a>\u77e5\u540d\u4eba\u7269\u3001Leuthold Group\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Jim Paulsen\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u7eb3\u6307\u672c\u5468\u7d2f\u8ba1\u4e0a\u6da84.51%\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fde\u7eed6\u5468\u8fde\u6da8\u3002\u4f46Paulsen\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u6ce2\u6da8\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f53\u5fc3\uff01\u201d\u4ed6\u5728Substack\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u53d1\u5e16\u5199\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4f4d\u6295\u8d44\u4e13\u5bb6\u8fd8\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u9664\u4e86\u4f30\u503c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u8bf8\u591a\u201c\u8b66\u793a\u4fe1\u53f7\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u201c\u6211\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u5757\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u666e\u901a\u7684\u2018\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u2019\uff09\u57282026\u5e74\u5269\u4f59\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8dd1\u8f93\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6574\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5d29\u76d8\u6216\u906d\u53d7\u4efb\u4f55\u91cd\u5927\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u80a1\u5e02\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90e8\u5206\u5728\u672c\u8f6e\u725b\u5e02\u4e2d\u5927\u591a\u88ab\u629b\u5728\u4e86\u540e\u9762\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u81ea2022\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u4ee4\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5931\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662fPaulsen\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u201c\u56db\u5927\u770b\u8dcc\u4fe1\u53f7\u201d\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>1.\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u5757\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u4ecd\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5173\u952e\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Paulsen\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u53d7\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u675f\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9\" title=\"View all posts in \u98ce\u9669\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u98ce\u9669<\/a>\u504f\u597d\u60c5\u7eea\u91cd\u71c3\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u4ecd\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e7410\u6708\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https:\/\/np-newspic.dfcfw.com\/download\/D24689404391136117659_w554h523.jpg\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u80a1\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u201c\u706b\u7206\u884c\u60c5\u201d\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff1f\u8d44\u6df1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5217\u56db\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u529b\u8bc1\uff01\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \" \/><\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0e\u6301\u6709\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6574\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u2018\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\u80a1\u7968\u2019\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fde\u7eed\u516d\u4e2a\u591a\u6708\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Paulsen\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u884c\u60c5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5c06\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u63a8\u5411\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u80a1\u4ef7\u96be\u4ee5\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u52bf\u5934\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u505c\u6ede\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2.\u4f01\u4e1a\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u6b63\u5728\u67af\u7aed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Paulsen\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5374\u5728\u67af\u7aed\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u768435\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4e24\u6b21\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u725b\u5e02\u2014\u20141990\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c2014\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7531\u4f01\u4e1a\u73b0\u91d1\u4f59\u989d\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u6240\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https:\/\/np-newspic.dfcfw.com\/download\/D24887513303496042101_w554h504.jpg\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u80a1\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u201c\u706b\u7206\u884c\u60c5\u201d\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff1f\u8d44\u6df1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5217\u56db\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u529b\u8bc1\uff01\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \" \/><\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u53ea\u8981\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%9a\" title=\"View all posts in \u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a<\/a>\u7684\u9886\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u591f\u4fdd\u6301\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u81ea2024\u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u73b0\u91d1\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u91cd\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Paulsen\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u4f01\u4e1a\u73b0\u91d1\u4f59\u989d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8981\u5f53\u5fc3\uff01\u81f3\u5c11\u81ea1990\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4f01\u4e1a\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u5947\u8ff9\u5f80\u5f80\u5c31\u4f1a\u6b65\u5c65\u7ef4\u8270\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3.\u7f55\u89c1\u73b0\u8c61<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Paulsen\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u725b\u5e02\u4e2d\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u5757\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u591a\u4e0e\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%bd%ad%e5%8d%9a\" title=\"View all posts in \u5f6d\u535a\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u5f6d\u535a<\/a>\u7814\u53d1\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff08Bloomberg R&D Leaders index\uff0cR&D\u6307\u4ee3Research and Experimental Development\uff0c\u4e2d\u6587\u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u201d\u7b80\u79f0\u201c\u7814\u53d1\u201d \uff09\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4f46\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u8fd9\u6ce2\u4e0a\u6da8\u884c\u60c5\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u76ee\u524d\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u5757\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u8be5\uff08\u7814\u53d1\uff09\u6307\u6570\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7814\u53d1\u6295\u5165\u6700\u591a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u518d\u62e5\u6709\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u589e\u957f\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8fd8\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u9886\u6da8\u5417\uff1f\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https:\/\/np-newspic.dfcfw.com\/download\/D25254083703714728847_w554h461.jpg\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u80a1\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u201c\u706b\u7206\u884c\u60c5\u201d\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff1f\u8d44\u6df1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5217\u56db\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u529b\u8bc1\uff01\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \" \/><\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>4.\u8001\u724c\u80a1\u7968\u5f3a\u52bf\u56de\u5f52<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5f15\u9886\u4e86\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e9b\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u4f20\u7edf\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u5f0f\u5373\u5c06\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u4e3b\u9898\u53ef\u4ee5\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3aHALO\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u8fd9\u662fJosh Brown\u521b\u9020\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u662f\u201c\u91cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u3001\u4f4e\u6dd8\u6c70\u7387\u201d\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7f29\u5199\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u6839\u690d\u4e8e\u5b9e\u4f53\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Paulsen\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u4ee3\u725b\u5e02\u671f\u95f4\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7f3a\u4e4f\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac%e9%9d%a2\" title=\"View all posts in \u57fa\u672c\u9762\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/a>\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5e02\u573a\u540c\u65f6\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u901f\u5ea6\u4f1a\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https:\/\/np-newspic.dfcfw.com\/download\/D24919766924741446398_w554h474.jpg\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u80a1\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u201c\u706b\u7206\u884c\u60c5\u201d\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff1f\u8d44\u6df1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5217\u56db\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u529b\u8bc1\uff01\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \" \/><\/center><\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\uff0c\u201c\u4f20\u7edf\u201d\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u5927\u76d8\uff0c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u66ff\u4ee3\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f0a\u6717\u5371\u673a\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u6700\u521d\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u677f\u5757\u7ee7\u7eed\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6301\u7eed\u4f18\u5f02\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u666e\u904d\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u91cd\u65b0\u914d\u7f6e\u5230\u4f20\u7edf\u677f\u5757\uff0c\u65b0\u677f\u5757\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u652f\u6491\u3002\u201dPaulsen\u8865\u5145\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/acttg.eastmoney.com\/pub\/xxlout_khmbdfcfappnew_random_0007467a\" rel=\"noopener\"><img src=\"https:\/\/np-newspic.dfcfw.com\/download\/D24832930842412850501_w690h389.jpg\" alt=\"\u7f8e\u80a1\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u201c\u706b\u7206\u884c\u60c5\u201d\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff1f\u8d44\u6df1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5217\u56db\u5927\u4fe1\u53f7\u529b\u8bc1\uff01\" style=\" display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>(\u6765\u6e90:\u5929\u5929\u57fa\u91d1\u7f51)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8fd1\u9636\u6bb5\u518d\u6b21\u706b\u7206\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u4f4d\u8d44\u6df1\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff1a\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u592a\u4e45\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u957f\u671f\u770b\u6da8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u77e5\u540d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[232],"tags":[142,265,131,241,325,88,367,192],"views":12,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776210"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=776210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776210\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=776210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=776210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=776210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}