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strong-Bold\">\u4ed6\u660e\u786e\u547c\u5401\u5e9f\u9664\u201c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u201d\uff08Dot Plot\uff09\u3002<\/font>\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u81ea2012\u5e74\u8d77\u6bcf\u5b63\u5ea6\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u5370\u774019\u4f4dFOMC\uff08\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff09\u6210\u5458\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u88ab\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5949\u4e3a\u572d\u81ec\u3002<\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u8fd8\u503e\u5411<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">\u5f31\u5316\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\u201d<\/font>\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u5f15\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7075\u6d3b\u8c03\u6574\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u8c03\u6574\u65e0\u5f02\u4e8e\u5411\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e8632\u5e74\u7684\u60ef\u4f8b\u53d1\u8d77\u201c\u5ba3\u6218\u201d\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5949\u884c\u201cnever explain\uff0c never excuse\u201d\uff08\u4ece\u4e0d\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4ece\u4e0d\u8fa9\u89e3\uff09\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u539f\u5219\u3002\u57281994\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5373\u65f6\u516c\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">1994\u5e74\uff0c\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u5e03FOMC\u58f0\u660e\u3002\u81ea2011\u5e744\u6708\u8d77\uff0c\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\u4e3e\u884c\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u30022019\u5e74\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5347\u7ea7\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u6bcf\u6b21\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u201c\u6807\u914d\u201d\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">Nick Timiraos\u5728\u63a8\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u89e3\u8bfb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u89e3\u8bfb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">\u5468\u4e09\uff084\u670829\u65e5\uff09\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d70\u5411\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5927\u589e\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n<div><img src=\"https:\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/\/n.sinaimg.cn\/spider20260502\/455\/w620h635\/20260502\/b39b-d1b76e6985d640610de27b98b60523b5.jpg\" alt=\"\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u6253\u783475\u5e74\u4f20\u7edf\uff01\u7f8e\u8054\u50a832\u5e74\u201c\u900f\u660e\u65f6\u4ee3\u201d\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff0c\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u80fd\u5426\u5151\u73b0\u964d\u606f\u627f\u8bfa\uff1f\"><span>\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aX\u5e73\u53f0<\/span><\/div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u79d1\u6797\u2022\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u5bf9\u6bcf\u7ecf\u8bb0\u8005\u76f4\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u50cf\u662f\u8ba9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0e\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u5ba3\u4f20\u98ce\u683c\u8d8b\u540c\uff0c\u5373\u9664\u975e\u4e3a\u704c\u8f93\u515a\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\u6216\u7f8e\u5316\u8206\u8bba\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e00\u5f8b\u51cf\u5c11\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u58f0\u201d\u3002\u5018\u82e5\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u5207\u5b9e\u63a8\u884c\u8be5\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9ad8\u5ea6\u900f\u660e\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u5fc5\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002<\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u516c\u5f00\u3001\u900f\u660e\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6c9f\u901a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53ea\u80fd\u81ea\u884c\u89e3\u8bfb\u653f\u7b56\u52a8\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u884d\u751f\u8bf8\u591a\u9690\u60a3\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u52a0\u5267\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5c06\u62d6\u7d2f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u884c\u4e8b\u4f1a\u6108\u53d1\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u4e0d\u613f\u8e0f\u5165\u5145\u6ee1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u9886\u57df\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f1a\u624e\u5806\u62b1\u56e2\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u62bc\u6ce8\u7279\u5b9a\u9f99\u5934\u4f01\u4e1a\u6216\u884c\u4e1a\u677f\u5757\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u5316\u5927\u578b\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u8bdd\u8bed\u6743\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u63d0\u5347\u8fde\u9501\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u76d8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u201d\u79d1\u6797\u2022\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u603b\u7ed3\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u6539\u9769\u8fdc\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e8e\u8ba9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u201c\u95ed\u9ea6\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u65f6\u671f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5931\u8bef\uff0c\u662f\u50cf\u201c\u770b\u540e\u89c6\u955c\u5f00\u8f66\u201d\u4e00\u6837\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fc7\u65f6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u7b56\u5177\u6709\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6ede\u540e\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5173\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u6570\u636e\uff08\u5982\u5355\u6708\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6216\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\uff09\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8bef\u5bfc\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u4ed6\u4e3b\u5f20\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u5177\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u548c\u6218\u7565\u6027\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6765\u5236\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u3002<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u6570\u636e\uff08\u5373\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u540e\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9996\u9009\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\u66f4\u5173\u5fc3\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">\u57284\u670821\u65e5\u7684\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5e94\u6539\u7528<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">\u201c\u622a\u5c3e\u5747\u503c\u901a\u80c0\u201d\uff08Trimmed Mean Inflation\uff09<\/font>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff0c<font cms-style=\"font-L 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