{"id":729736,"date":"2026-02-25T03:13:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T19:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=729736"},"modified":"2026-02-25T03:13:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T19:13:19","slug":"%e6%af%94%e6%b0%91%e8%b0%83%e5%87%86%ef%bc%8c%e6%af%94%e6%83%b3%e8%b1%a1%e5%8d%b1%e9%99%a9%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e7%9c%bc%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=729736","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u6c11\u8c03\u51c6\uff0c\u6bd4\u60f3\u8c61\u5371\u9669\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u773c\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1aThe Token Dispatch<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aPrathik Desai<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u6807\u9898\uff1aThe Signal and the Noise<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u901a\u5e38\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5173\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u2014\u2014 \u6c83\u4f26\u00b7<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%b7%b4%e8%8f%b2%e7%89%b9\" title=\"View all posts in \u5df4\u83f2\u7279\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u5df4\u83f2\u7279<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u91d1\u94b1\u80fd\u8fc7\u6ee4\u7a7a\u8bdd\u3002\u652f\u6301\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/tag\/%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\" title=\"\u67e5\u770b\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a<\/a>\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u6709\u4eba\u5728<span data-slug=\"polymarket\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/tag\/polymarket\" title=\"\u67e5\u770bPolymarket\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Polymarket<\/a><\/span>\u548c<span data-slug=\"kalshi\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/tag\/kalshi\" title=\"\u67e5\u770bKalshi\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kalshi<\/a><\/span>\u4e0a\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e862024\u5e74<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u56fd\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a>\u603b\u7edf<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/tag\/%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%89\" title=\"\u67e5\u770b\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5927\u9009<\/a>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u4e0d\u65b0\u9c9c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u679c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4e5f\u5e76\u975e\u5934\u4e00\u56de\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1988 \u5e74 10 \u6708\uff0c\u7231\u8377\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u7fa4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u578b\u3001\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u652f\u6491\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u542f\u52a8\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/tag\/%e6%9c%9f%e8%b4%a7%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\" title=\"\u67e5\u770b\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a<\/a>\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d2d\u4e70\u5408\u540c\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7H\u00b7W\u00b7\u5e03\u4ec0\u83b7\u80dc\uff0c\u5408\u540c\u652f\u4ed8 1 \u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u675c\u5361\u57fa\u65af\u83b7\u80dc\uff0c\u5219\u652f\u4ed8 0 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u524d\u591c\uff0c\u5e03\u4ec0\u7684\u5408\u540c\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a 53 \u7f8e\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9009\u60c5\u80f6\u7740\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u5e03\u4ec0\u4ee5 53.4% \u7684\u9009\u7968\u548c 8 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u4f18\u52bf\u83b7\u80dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea\u90a3\u6b21\u5b66\u672f\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u63d0\u524d 100 \u5929\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u5747\u4f18\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u6c11\u8c03\u3002\u5728\u81ea 1988 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\uff0c74% \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u6bd4\u6c11\u8c03\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u6210\u529f\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5b83\u8feb\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u8868\u8fbe\u7531\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u652f\u6491\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8c03\u67e5\u95ee\u5377\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u5230\u7684\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u76f8\u4fe1\u5e03\u4ec0\u4f1a\u8d62\u7684\u4eba\u4e70\u5165\u5e76\u6301\u6709\u5408\u540c\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u82b1 50 \u7f8e\u5143\u53bb\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u90fd\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u805a\u96c6\u4e86\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u540d\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u65f6\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u5c31\u4f1a\u6c47\u805a\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5e7f\u5927\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6837\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7231\u8377\u534e\u5dde\u90a3\u4e2a\u9760\u5fae\u8584\u9884\u7b97\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u5b66\u672f\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u7531<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>\u9644\u5c5e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/econres\/feds\/files\/2026010pap.pdf\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5de5\u4f5c\u8bba\u6587<\/a>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u53d7\u76d1\u7ba1\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a Kalshi \u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5b9d\u8d35\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u57fa\u51c6\u3002\u540c\u5468\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%ba%bd%e7%ba%a6\" title=\"View all posts in \u7ebd\u7ea6\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7ebd\u7ea6<\/a>\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08NYSE\uff09\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6797\u6069\u00b7\u9a6c\u4e01\uff08Lynn Martin\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6700\u5927\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a Polymarket \u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u591c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u65b0\u95fb\u673a\u6784\u90fd\u65e9\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e86<span data-slug=\"\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\">\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae\" title=\"View all posts in \u7279\u6717\u666e\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7279\u6717\u666e<\/a><\/span>\u7684\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u671f\u8d27\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0cKalshi \u5ba3\u5e03\u4e0e\u4e00\u5bb6\u6bcf\u65e5\u5904\u7406 2.6 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u673a\u6784\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5e73\u53f0\u8fbe\u6210\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u63a2\u8ba8\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6674\u96e8\u8868\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9\" title=\"View all posts in \u98ce\u9669\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u98ce\u9669<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u5de5\u5177<\/h3>\n<p>\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u73b0\uff0cKalshi \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e0e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%bd%ad%e5%8d%9a\" title=\"View all posts in \u5f6d\u535a\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u5f6d\u535a<\/a>\uff08Bloomberg\uff09\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u9884\u671f\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u5728\u6838\u5fc3 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=cpi\" title=\"View all posts in CPI\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">CPI<\/a> \u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0 Kalshi \u5bf9\u6838\u5fc3 CPI \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u4e8e\u5f6d\u535a\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260225\/177195739978945938.png\" title=\"1771957012896538.png\" alt=\"\u6bd4\u6c11\u8c03\u51c6\uff0c\u6bd4\u60f3\u8c61\u5371\u9669\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u773c\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>@FederalReserve<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7edf\u8ba1\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u4f46 Kalshi \u7684\u72ec\u7279\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u80fd\u591f\u9488\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u589e\u957f\u3001\u6838\u5fc3 CPI \u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7b49<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e\" title=\"View all posts in \u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/a>\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u3001\u5b9e\u65f6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u50cf<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80\" title=\"View all posts in \u901a\u80c0\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u901a\u80c0<\/a>\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u5f6d\u535a\u5171\u8bc6\u4ec5\u5728\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u524d\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u53ef\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4f20\u7edf\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u9891\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u65e0\u6cd5\u53cd\u6620\u5b9e\u65f6\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u8f83\u957f\u7a7a\u767d\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi \u4e0d\u4ec5\u63d0\u4f9b\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd8\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b9e\u65f6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u30022025 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u521d\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e8%b4%b8%e6%98%93\" title=\"View all posts in \u8d38\u6613\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u8d38\u6613<\/a>\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6682\u65f6\u62ac\u9ad8\u4e86\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6700\u7ec8\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4f46 Kalshi \u5b9e\u65f6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u6bcf\u6708\u7684\u5f6d\u535a\u4f30\u7b97\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u6355\u6349\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ec6\u5fae\u5dee\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260225\/177195739911626160.png\" title=\"1771957045434578.png\" alt=\"\u6bd4\u6c11\u8c03\u51c6\uff0c\u6bd4\u60f3\u8c61\u5371\u9669\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u773c\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>@FederalReserve<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u5f53\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7406\u4e8b\u5728\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff09\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u53d1\u8a00\u65f6\uff0cKalshi \u7684\u5e02\u573a\u8d54\u7387\u4f1a\u5b9e\u65f6\u53d8\u52a8\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u7406\u4e8b\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8bfb\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7J\u00b7\u6c83\u52d2\uff08Christopher J. Waller\uff09\u5728 2025 \u5e74 7 \u6708 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u53d1\u8868\u9e3d\u6d3e\u8a00\u8bba\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af\" title=\"View all posts in \u964d\u606f\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u964d\u606f<\/a>\u7684\u6982\u7387\u964d\u81f3 75%\u3002\u5728 6 \u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u5f3a\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u7387\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u5347\u81f3 90% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u5de5\u5177\u76ee\u524d\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u5230\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u9762\u524d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u8c01\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u4ea4\u6613\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u4efb\u591a\u5c11\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u68c0\u67e5\u8c01\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ee5\u53ca\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728 2024 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u81f3 2026 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u671f\u95f4\uff0cPolymarket \u4e0a\u5173\u4e8e FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u4e86 11 \u500d\uff0c\u4ece 5900 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u589e\u52a0\u5230 6.6 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u603b\u8ba1\uff0cPolymarket \u7684 FOMC \u5e02\u573a\u5904\u7406\u4e86 26 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u8be5\u5e73\u53f0\u6587\u5316\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u603b\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u662f\u8c01\u5728 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5982\u6b64\u5de8\u989d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff1f\u867d\u7136\u5728\u50cf Polymarket \u8fd9\u6837\u533f\u540d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u5f88\u96be\u67e5\u660e\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u6d4b\uff1a\u5f88\u96be\u4e0d\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u53c2\u4e0e\u8d77\u8349\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%af%b9%e5%86%b2%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91\" title=\"View all posts in \u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1<\/a>\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5982\u679c\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u4e0b\u8c03\u5c31\u80fd\u83b7\u5229\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e8%b4%a7%e5%b8%81\" title=\"View all posts in \u8d27\u5e01\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u8d27\u5e01<\/a>\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\uff1f\u7231\u8377\u534e\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8a00\u884c\u4e00\u81f4\u3001\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u53ea\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002\u5728\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5047\u8bbe\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5f53\u6d89\u53ca\u5982\u6b64\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u65f6\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u805a\u96c6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53d1\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u9700\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h3>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u6d4b\u91cf\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u9884\u671f\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u53cd\u6620\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53 Kalshi \u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e0d\u5229 CPI \u6570\u636e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 15%\uff0c\u800c\u4f20\u7edf\u8c03\u67e5\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e3a 10% \u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u8ddd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e86\u5f6d\u535a\u5171\u8bc6\u9057\u6f0f\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u652f\u4ed8\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u51b2\u4e0d\u5229\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5728\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u89c6\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u8ddd\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136 Kalshi \u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4fe1\u53f7\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u53ef\u9760\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u603b\u540d\u4e49\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u7684 85% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u4f53\u80b2\u7c7b\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260225\/177195739911351594.png\" title=\"1771957075814983.png\" alt=\"\u6bd4\u6c11\u8c03\u51c6\uff0c\u6bd4\u60f3\u8c61\u5371\u9669\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u773c\u4e2d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>@Dune<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709 20 \u8d77\u8054\u90a6\u8bc9\u8bbc\u6b63\u5728\u8d28\u7591\u901a\u8fc7\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u76d1\u7ba1\u5957\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi \u4e0a\u7684 FOMC \u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u901a\u8fc7\u6d3b\u8dc3\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3001\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u5dee\u548c\u505a\u5e02\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e3a\u5e73\u53f0\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7ef4\u6301\u4e86\u6240\u6709 Kalshi \u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b8f\u89c2\u5e02\u573a\u72ec\u7acb\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u5728\u76d1\u7ba1\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5e73\u53f0\u5c06\u5931\u53bb\u4fdd\u6301\u4ef7\u5dee\u72ed\u7a84\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5f15\u64ce\u3002\u8f83\u8584\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5e02\u573a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7528\u8f83\u5c11\u8d44\u91d1\u64ac\u52a8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/tag\/%e6%93%8d%e7%ba%b5\" title=\"\u67e5\u770b\u64cd\u7eb5\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u64cd\u7eb5<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u5efa\u8bae\u5c06 Kalshi \u4f5c\u4e3a\u76d1\u63a7\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u51b3\u7b56\u8f93\u5165\u3002\u4f46\u516c\u5f00\u8fd9\u4e00\u610f\u56fe\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\u5efa\u8bae\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u4f7f\u7528 Kalshi \u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4f20\u5165\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u68c0\u67e5\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6c9f\u901a\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u53c2\u8003\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u610f\u56fe\u662f\u516c\u5f00\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u770b\u5230 Kalshi \u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 15%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u8fc7\u51b3\u7b56\u4f20\u8fbe\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e2d\u653e\u8f6f\u63aa\u8f9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u800c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u4f20\u7edf\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u53d1\u751f\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u867d\u7136 Kalshi \u7684 FOMC \u5e02\u573a\u89c4\u6a21\u4e3a 6.6 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u89c4\u6a21\u9ad8\u8fbe\u6570\u767e\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u524d\u8005\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\u5c31\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u8d54\u7387\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d44\u91d1\u5145\u8db3\u3001\u4e14\u660e\u767d\u79fb\u52a8 Kalshi \u80fd\u591f\u5f71\u54cd\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u540e\u7eed\u8a00\u8bba\uff08\u5373\u4fbf\u4e0d\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\uff09\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\u6765\u64ac\u52a8\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u64cd\u7eb5\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7a81\u663e\u4e86 1988 \u5e74\u7231\u8377\u534e\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e 2026 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><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1aThe Token Dispatch \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aPrathik Desai \u539f\u6807\u9898\uff1aThe Signal a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[327],"tags":[382,271,191,80,250,131,241,22,79,69,367,97,34,25,42,385,192,376,51],"views":34,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/729736"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=729736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/729736\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=729736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=729736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=729736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}