{"id":728942,"date":"2026-02-24T10:10:39","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T02:10:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=728942"},"modified":"2026-02-24T10:10:39","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T02:10:39","slug":"%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b9%85%e4%b9%8b%e7%88%b6%e5%8a%a0%e5%89%a7ai%e9%ac%bc%e6%95%85%e4%ba%8b%e6%81%90%e6%85%8c%ef%bc%9a%e8%bd%af%e4%bb%b6%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%9a%e6%81%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=728942","title":{"rendered":"\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\u52a0\u5267\u201cAI\u9b3c\u6545\u4e8b\u201d\u6050\u614c\uff1a\u8f6f\u4ef6\u884c\u4e1a\u6050\u6709\u7834\u4ea7\u4e4b\u865e"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\uff08Nassim Taleb\uff09\u5468\u4e00\u5411\u6295\u8d44<\/a>\u8005\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6da8\u52bf\u8fdb\u5165\u66f4\u52a0\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5e94\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u8fce\u63a5\u8f6f\u4ef6\u884c\u4e1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7834\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n

Taleb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5f53\u524d\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86AI\u9886\u519b\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u529b\u3002\u867d\u7136AI\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u989d\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u88ab\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u745e\u58eb\u4fe1\u8d37\u3001\u745e\u94f6\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u62c5\u4efb\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff0c\u5e76\u521b\u7acb\u4e00\u5bb6\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1<\/a>\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u4ee5\u5176\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u4e8e\u4e16\u3002<\/p>\n

Taleb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u5728AI\u9886\u57df\u8d5a\u5927\u94b1\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5c31\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u6784\u6210AI\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6280\u672f\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u548c\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u91cd\u5851\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u8f6f\u4ef6\u9886\u57df\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u516c\u53f8\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u5468\u4e00\u6536\u8dcc\u7ea61%\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8fd1\u671f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u629b\u552e\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u5173\u7a0e<\/a>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ca\u4e24\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u5f15\u53d1\u7684AI\u7126\u8651\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u62c5\u5fc3\u968f\u7740\u7f16\u7a0b\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/a><\/span>\u5de5\u5177\u5c06\u98a0\u8986\u63d0\u4f9b\u8ba2\u9605\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7ade\u76f8\u5f00\u53d1\u548c\u5efa\u8bbe\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/span>\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934\u4eec\u6216\u8bb8\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u5371\u9669\u7684\u501f\u8d37\u6f6e\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6570\u5e74\u5185\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5468\u672b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8Citrini Research\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u6700\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5728\u5468\u4e00\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6050\u614c\u3002<\/strong>\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5728 2028\u5e746\u6708\u7684\u201c\u9b3c\u6545\u4e8b\u201d\u822c\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff1a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u5bfc\u81f4\u767d\u9886\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u8f6f\u4ef6\u652f\u6491\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u840e\u7f29\u3002<\/p>\n

Grizzle Investment Management\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7ecf\u7406Thomas George\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5373\u4fbf\u6700\u7ec8\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u50cfCitrini Research\u6240\u7f57\u5217\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u666f\u90a3\u6837\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u62c5\u5fe7\u4e5f\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\u8bfb\u5b8c\u4e4b\u540e\u80af\u5b9a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u611f\u89c9\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u4efb\u4f55\u6301\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u800c\u6765\u81ea\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u65e0\u7591\u6b63\u4e0e\u8fd9\u7bc7\u201c\u9b3c\u6545\u4e8b\u201d\u76f8\u547c\u5e94\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4ed6\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u8fc7\u5f80\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u800c\u58f0\u540d\u9e4a\u8d77\u7684Taleb\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206AI\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u63a8\u52a8\uff0c\u82e5\u9886\u6da8\u677f\u5757\u53d1\u751f\u8f6e\u6362\uff0c\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6307\u6570\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u201c\u5404\u884c\u4e1a\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u201dTaleb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u975e\u5c0f\u5e45\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u64a4\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0cTaleb\u9884\u8ba1\u5e02\u573a\u6da8\u52bf\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u51b2\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u56de\u64a4\u5f80\u5f80\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Taleb\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u8f6c\u53d8\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5728\u9ec4\u91d1<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u9886\u57df\u5c24\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u3002\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u56e0AI\u4ea4\u6613\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u5b58\u7591\u53ca\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u52a0\u5267\u800c\u9707\u8361\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1<\/a><\/span>\u4ef7\u683c\u81ea\u53bb\u5e7410\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u5df2\u98d9\u5347\u4e86\u7ea630%\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

Taleb\u540c\u65f6\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a>\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u8fc7\u5236\u88c1<\/a>\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u7f8e\u5143\u201c\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u201d\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201c\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01<\/a>\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d44\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3\u6216\u6ca1\u6536\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u5b58\u50a8\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5173\u4e8e\u8d38\u6613<\/a>\u653f\u7b56\uff0cTaleb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u5b9e\u65bd\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u4eec\u6216\u8bb8\u6709\u6210\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\u7684\u6267\u884c\u4f1a\u632b\u4f24\u6295\u8d44\u79ef\u6781\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5173\u7a0e\u82e5\u6c38\u4e45\u4e14\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4fbf\u80fd\u9002\u5e94\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u89e3\u91ca\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u82e5\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u5165\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u4fbf\u4f1a\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8b66\u544a\u5173\u7a0e\u5177\u6709\u7d2f\u9000\u7a0e\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5f71\u54cd\u5c24\u751a\uff0c\u5c06\u52a0\u5267\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4f4d\u6700\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\u7f8e\u4f0a\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9<\/a>\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5411\u6765\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65e0\u6cd5\u627f\u53d7\u53e6\u4e00\u6b211970\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f0f\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u90a3\u79cd\u7531\u5546\u54c1\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6ede\u80c0\u65e0\u6cd5\u8f7b\u6613\u901a\u8fc7\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u4fee\u590d\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u5c31\u7b97\u8bf7\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u53bb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>\u4efb\u804c\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6d4e\u4e8e\u4e8b\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u7531Taleb\u62c5\u4efb\u6770\u51fa\u79d1\u5b66\u987e\u95ee\u7684Universa Investments\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6b63\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u5bf9\u51b2\u7b56\u7565<\/a>\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u5b9e\u73b0\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u53bb\u5e74\u5b9e\u73b0\u8d44\u672c\u5e74\u5316\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u8d85100%\u3002<\/p>\n

(\u6765\u6e90:\u5929\u5929\u57fa\u91d1\u7f51)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\uff08Nassim Taleb\uff09\u5468\u4e00\u5411\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6da8\u52bf\u8fdb\u5165\u66f4\u52a0\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u9636\u6bb5 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":[],"categories":[232],"tags":[148,286,287,80,241,78,88,367,97,34,25,41,192,51],"views":25,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728942"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=728942"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728942\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=728942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=728942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=728942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}