{"id":725802,"date":"2026-02-18T06:07:37","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T22:07:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=725802"},"modified":"2026-02-18T06:07:37","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T22:07:37","slug":"%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e7%9a%84%e9%99%b7%e9%98%b1%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e4%bd%a0%e4%b9%b0%e7%9a%84%e6%80%bb%e6%98%af%e8%be%93","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=725802","title":{"rendered":"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aTerry Lee<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u6807\u9898\uff1aWhy prediction markets are mispricing parlays &#8211; the correlation blind spot<\/p>\n<p>\u7f16\u8bd1\u53ca\u6574\u7406\uff1aBitpushNews<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h3>\u524d\u8a00<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u50cf Polymarket \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u6211\uff09\u5bf9\u201c\u4e32\u5173\u201d\uff08Parlay\uff0c\u5373\u591a\u91cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\u6295\u6ce8\uff09\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u65b9\u5f0f\u901a\u5e38\u662f\uff1a\u5c06\u6bcf\u4e00\u9879\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7b80\u5355\u76f8\u4e58\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387 P(A) = 80%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387 P(B) = 70%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4e8b\u4ef6 C \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387 P(C) = 60%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e32\u5173\u603b\u6982\u7387 = 80% \u00d7 70% \u00d7 60% = 33.6%<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u6ce8\u610f\uff0cParlays \u662f\u535a\u5f69\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84\" title=\"View all posts in \u6295\u8d44\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u6295\u8d44<\/a>\u4e2d\u7684\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u4e2d\u6587\u901a\u5e38\u53eb\u201c\u4e32\u5173\u201d\u6216\u201c\u8fc7\u5173\u201d\u3002\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a \u4f60\u628a\u4e24\u4e2a\u6216\u591a\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8d4c\u6ce8\u7ed1\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u89c4\u5219\uff1a \u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u4f60\u9009\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5168\u90e8\u9884\u6d4b\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u4f60\u624d\u80fd\u62ff\u5956\u91d1\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u9519\u4e86\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u6ce8\u5355\u5c31\u5168\u8d54\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5bf9\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u6570\u5b66\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e58\u6cd5\u8fd0\u7b97\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740 A \u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9 B \u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>\u5728\u67d0\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f1a\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4e00\u4f4d\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u201c\u94c1\u9508\u5730\u5e26\u201d\u5404\u5dde\uff0c\u9884\u793a\u7740\u4ed6\u5728\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u7684\u80dc\u7b97\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u6574\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u503c\u5f97\u505a\u201c\u4e32\u5173\u201d\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u662f\u6709\u5173\u8054\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u8054\u6027\uff0c\u4f60\u6781\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u4ed8\u4e86\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9519\u5931\u4e86\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u5c55\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u6559\u4f60\u5982\u4f55\u50cf\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u4e1a\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u4e3a\u201c\u591a\u817f\u671f\u6743\u201d\uff08Multi-leg options\uff09\u5b9a\u4ef7\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e32\u5173\u8fdb\u884c\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u5b9a\u4ef7\u9519\u8bef\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/tag\/%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\" title=\"\u67e5\u770b\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a<\/a>\u5de5\u5177\u90fd\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u201c\u6267\u884c\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u201c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790\u201d\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7ec6\u5206\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u5bf9\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u3002\u867d\u7136\u201c\u4e32\u5173\u201d\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u4e2d\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5904\u7406\u7279\u5b9a\u793e\u4f1a\/\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u8fd8\u5904\u4e8e\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u673a\u5236\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae<\/h3>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136463839742590.png\" title=\"1771364033824004.png\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe1\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u91cd\u590d\u52a8\u4f5c\uff0c83% \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u201c\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u201d\u540e\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u201c\u7ef4\u6301\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u5229\u7528\u5723\u8def\u6613\u65af\u8054\u50a8\uff08FRED\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff08\u4ece 1994 \u5e74\u5230 2026 \u5e74\u521d\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f6c\u79fb\u77e9\u9635\uff08Transition Matrix\uff09\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u63d0\u53d6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u786e\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u7ef4\u6301\uff1a \u6982\u7387\u4e3a 83.1%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af\" title=\"View all posts in \u964d\u606f\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u964d\u606f<\/a> -&gt; \u964d\u606f\uff1a \u6982\u7387\u4e3a 69.2%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af\" title=\"View all posts in \u52a0\u606f\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u52a0\u606f<\/a> -&gt; \u52a0\u606f\uff1a \u6982\u7387\u4e3a 62.5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u5177\u6709\u201c\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\u201d\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u3001\u4f9d\u8d56\u6570\u636e\u7684\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u91cd\u590d\u540c\u6837\u7684\u52a8\u4f5c\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u53d1\u751f\u201c\u5236\u5ea6\u6027\u8f6c\u53d8\u201d\uff08Regime Shift\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\u201d\u6709\u591a\u5f3a\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u201c\u51b3\u7b56\u8d8b\u52bf\u201d\uff08\u5373\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u7ef4\u6301\u3001\u964d\u606f\u6216\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\uff1a \u5171\u51fa\u73b0 32 \u6b21\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u6b21\u6301\u7eed 5.4 \u4e2a\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u964d\u606f\uff1a \u5171\u51fa\u73b0 12 \u6b21\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u6b21\u6301\u7eed 3.3 \u4e2a\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u6211\u6a21\u62df\u4e86 1000 \u4e2a\u201c\u5e73\u884c\u5b87\u5b99\u201d\u4e2d\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5386\u53f2\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u90fd\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff08\u7c7b\u4f3c\u629b\u786c\u5e01\uff09\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u603b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7ef4\u6301\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 66%\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u4e3a 15%\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u4e3a 19%\uff0c\u4f46\u6bcf\u6b21\u51b3\u7b56\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136463947928136.png\" title=\"1771364060726875.png\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe2\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u51b3\u7b56\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6982\u7387\u7684 2-3 \u500d\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u201c\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u201d\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u5e73\u5747\u4ec5\u80fd\u6301\u7eed 2.9 \u4e2a\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u800c\u964d\u606f\u548c\u52a0\u606f\u5219\u5e73\u5747\u53ea\u6709 1.2 \u4e2a\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c06\u5b9e\u9645\u5386\u53f2\u4e0e\u968f\u673a\u6a21\u62df\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ef4\u6301\uff1a \u5b9e\u9645 5.4 \u6b21 vs \u968f\u673a 2.9 \u6b21\uff08\u957f\u4e86 1.9 \u500d\uff09<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u964d\u606f\uff1a \u5b9e\u9645 3.3 \u6b21 vs \u968f\u673a 1.2 \u6b21\uff08\u957f\u4e86 2.8 \u500d\uff09<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u52a0\u606f\uff1a \u5b9e\u9645 2.6 \u6b21 vs \u968f\u673a 1.2 \u6b21\uff08\u957f\u4e86 2.1 \u500d\uff09<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u7684\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u3002 \u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff1a\u5f53\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5f00\u59cb\u964d\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u5185\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u4f9d\u7136\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6781\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b80\u5355\u4e58\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u201c\u4e32\u5173\u201d\u5b8c\u5168\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\u6bd4\u72ec\u7acb\u968f\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u5f3a 2-3 \u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u4ec5\u4ec5\u770b\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\uff0c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u201c\u4e09\u5173\u201d\uff08\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\uff09\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u4e8e\u524d\u4e24\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\uff1a<\/p>\n<h4>\u5ef6\u7eed\u539f\u6709\u8def\u5f84<\/h4>\n<h4><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136463996506980.png\" title=\"1771364081601692.png\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><br \/><\/h4>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe3\uff1a\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u76f8\u540c\u64cd\u4f5c\u540e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u64cd\u4f5c\u51e0\u4e4e\u603b\u662f\u5339\u914d\u7684\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u56fe 3 \u53ef\u4ee5\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u5f53\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u91cd\u590d\u540c\u6837\u7684\u52a8\u4f5c\u4e24\u6b21\u540e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u7ee7\u7eed\u8be5\u52a8\u4f5c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u538b\u5012\u6027\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u4e24\u6b21\u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u7ef4\u6301\uff1a 87%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4e24\u6b21\u52a0\u606f -&gt; \u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\uff1a 84%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4e24\u6b21\u964d\u606f -&gt; \u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff1a 68%\uff08\u7565\u5f31\u4e00\u4e9b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u77e9\u9635\u4e2d 0% \u7684\u5355\u5143\u683c\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ece\u672a\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u540e\u7a81\u7136\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ece\u672a\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u540e\u7a81\u7136\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u5148\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u6682\u505c\uff08\u7ef4\u6301\uff09\u201d\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u4ec5\u4ec5\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5e2e\u4f60\u6392\u9664\u6389\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u201c\u5e7c\u7a1a\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u65e0\u6548\u7ec4\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<h4>\u5236\u5ea6\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e4b\u540e<\/h4>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136463911187803.png\" title=\"1771364108347577.png\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe4\uff1a\u5236\u5ea6\u5207\u6362\u540e\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5dee\u5f02\u5de8\u5927\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u6539\u53d8\u90fd\u662f\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u964d\u606f -&gt; \u964d\u606f\uff1a \u6982\u7387\u4e3a 75%\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6253\u7834\u7ef4\u6301\u72b6\u6001\u5f00\u59cb\u9996\u964d\uff0c\u201c\u95f8\u95e8\u201d\u5c31\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\uff0c\u540e\u7eed\u8ddf\u8fdb\u6982\u7387\u6781\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u964d\u606f -&gt; \u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u7ef4\u6301\uff1a \u6982\u7387\u4e3a 100%\u3002\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u6682\u505c\u964d\u606f\u540e\u4ece\u672a\u7acb\u5373\u6062\u590d\u964d\u606f\u3002\u4e00\u6b21\u6682\u505c\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5f7b\u5e95\u505c\u4e0b\uff01<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u52a0\u606f -&gt; \u7ef4\u6301\uff1a \u6982\u7387\u4e3a 79%\u3002\u7ef4\u6301\u671f\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u8bd5\u63a2\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u505c\u4e0b\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u52a0\u606f -&gt; \u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u52a0\u606f\/\u7ef4\u6301\uff1a \u5206\u522b\u4e3a 60% \u548c 40%\u3002\u4e0e\u964d\u606f\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u9014\u4e2d\u7684\u6682\u505c\u5177\u6709\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u201c\u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u964d\u606f -&gt; \u964d\u606f\u201d\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u503c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355\u4e58\u6cd5\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u800c\u201c\u964d\u606f -&gt; \u7ef4\u6301 -&gt; \u964d\u606f\u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ec4\u5408\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ef7\u503c\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u987a\u5e8f\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5176\u771f\u5b9e\u4ef7\u503c\u5c31\u5929\u5dee\u5730\u522b\u3002 \u72ec\u7acb\u4e58\u6cd5\u6a21\u578b\u65e0\u6cd5\u6355\u6349\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6574\u4f53\u5b9a\u4ef7\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u6574\u4f53\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u4f7f\u7528\u76f2\u76ee\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u8be5\u4f7f\u7528\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u201c\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u6b21\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\uff08Hold-Hold-Hold\uff09\u201d\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136463994181629.png\" title=\"1771364124662634.png\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\"\/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u521d\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\uff1a \u4f7f\u7528\u603b\u6982\u7387\uff08\u7ef4\u6301\u6982\u7387 67%\uff09\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e3a 67% \u00d7 67% \u00d7 67% = 30.1%\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u4fee\u6b63\u6a21\u578b\uff1a \u4f7f\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e3a 67%\uff08\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\uff09\u00d7 83%\uff08\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21|\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\uff09\u00d7 87%\uff08\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21|\u524d\u4e24\u6b21\uff09= 48.4%\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136463921834450.png\" title=\"1771364153347872.png\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe5\uff1a\u540c\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u88ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u800c\u6d89\u53ca\u65b9\u5411\u5207\u6362\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u5219\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\uff09<\/p>\n<h3>\u5b9e\u65f6\u5e02\u573a\u68c0\u6d4b<\/h3>\n<p>\u4ee5 Polymarket \u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136463956162326.png\" title=\"1771364192271729.png\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe6\uff1aPolymarket \u8d54\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u7ec4\u5408\u4e00\uff1a\u7ef4\u6301 &#8211; \u7ef4\u6301 &#8211; \u7ef4\u6301\uff08\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\uff09<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u521d\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1a 93%\uff083\u6708\uff09\u00d7 75%\uff084\u6708\uff09\u00d7 38%\uff086\u6708\uff09\u2248 26%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1a 87% \u00d7 87% \u00d7 87% \u2248 65.8%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a \u5e02\u573a\u5b58\u5728\u9ad8\u8fbe 39 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9 \u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7ec4\u5408\u4e8c\uff1a\u7ef4\u6301 &#8211; \u7ef4\u6301 &#8211; \u964d\u606f\uff08\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u9ad8\u4f30\uff09<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>\u521d\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1a 93% \u00d7 75% \u00d7 49% = 34.2%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1a 87% \u00d7 87% \u00d7 8.5% = 6.4%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a \u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7ea6\u4e3a 34%\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u6982\u7387\u4ec5\u4e3a 6.4%\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86 5 \u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u8fd9\u80fd\u8d5a\u94b1\u5417\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u6211\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u3002\u81ea 1994 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u5bf9\u548c\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e09\u8fde\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4fee\u6b63\u540e\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\uff08\u610f\u5473\u7740\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0b\u6ce8 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136464089658609.png\" title=\"1771364253517877.png\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe7\uff1a\u4e24\u8fde\u4e32\u5173\u7d2f\u79ef\u76c8\u4e8f\u793a\u4f8b\uff09<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/images.bitpush.news\/cn\/20260218\/177136464058032682.png\" title=\"1771364265259171.png\" alt=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u201c\u9677\u9631\u201d\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u4e70\u7684\u603b\u662f\u8f93\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u56fe8\uff1a\u4e09\u8fde\u4e32\u5173\u7d2f\u79ef\u76c8\u4e8f\u793a\u4f8b\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea 1994 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4f4e\u4f30\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0b\u6ce8 100 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5728\u4e24\u8fde\u4e32\u5173\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ea7\u751f 16.9 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5728\u4e09\u8fde\u4e32\u5173\u4e0a\u6536\u76ca\u8d85\u8fc7 100 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6536\u76ca\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u8df3\u5347\u5bf9\u5e94\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728 2001\u30012008\u30012020 \u4ee5\u53ca 2024-2025 \u5e74\u7684\u5bbd\u677e\u5468\u671f\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u52a8\u4f5c\u53cd\u590d\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u521d\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\u5374\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4f4e\u4f30\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u201c\u9636\u68af\u72b6\u201d\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u94b1\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6301\u7eed\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u8d5a\u5230\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c20 \u4e16\u7eaa 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5230 2000 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href=\"https:\/\/www.bitpush.news\/articles\/7611655\" title=\"Web3\u9690\u79c1\uff0c99%\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u7406\u89e3\u9519\u4e86\" target=\"_blank\">Web3\u9690\u79c1\uff0c99%\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u7406\u89e3\u9519\u4e86<\/a> <span data=\"1770942978\" ><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aTerry Lee \u539f\u6807\u9898\uff1aWhy prediction markets are mispricing  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[327],"tags":[271,236,353,96,241,22,97,34,385,192],"views":32,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/725802"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=725802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/725802\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=725802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=725802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=725802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}