{"id":724338,"date":"2026-02-14T12:41:03","date_gmt":"2026-02-14T04:41:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=724338"},"modified":"2026-02-14T12:41:03","modified_gmt":"2026-02-14T04:41:03","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e9%93%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e4%be%8b%e5%a4%96%e8%ae%ba%e6%ad%a3%e6%bc%94%e5%8f%98%e4%b8%ba%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%86%8d%e5%b9%b3%e8%a1%a1-%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e8%b5%84%e4%ba%a7%e6%9c%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=724338","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u94f6\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u6b63\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u518d\u5e73\u8861 \u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u6709\u671b\u9886\u6da8"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44<\/a>\u7b56\u7565<\/a>\u5e08\u54c8\u7279\u5185\u7279(Michael Hartnett)\u5728\u5468\u4e94\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u62a5\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a>\u7684\u8d38\u6613<\/a>\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u50ac\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u65b0\u79e9\u5e8f\u201d\u2014\u2014\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6b63\u5f03\u7f8e\u5143\u53ca\u7f8e\u80a1\u800c\u53bb\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u6295\u5411\u56fd\u9645\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e<\/a>\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9ad8\u70ed\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u50ac\u751f\u65b0\u7684ABD\u4ea4\u6613\u2014\u2014\u201c\u9664\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7686\u53ef\u4e70\u201d(anything but dollar)\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u6b63\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u518d\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u54c8\u7279\u5185\u7279\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u63d0\u632f\u56fd\u9645\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a<\/a>\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\u4e5f\u6709\u671b\u4ece\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\u9700\u6c42\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u3002\u4ed6\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5370\u5ea6<\/a>\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u914d\u7f6e\u4f9d\u7136\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u54c8\u7279\u5185\u7279\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u636e\u7f8e\u94f6\u62a5\u544a\u63f4\u5f15EPFR Global\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6b27\u6d32<\/a>\u3001\u65e5\u672c<\/a>\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u53d1\u8fbe\u5e02\u573a\u80a1\u7968\u57fa\u91d1\u5408\u8ba1\u5438\u7eb31040\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8fdc\u8d85\u6d41\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u57fa\u91d1\u7684250\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81ea\u7279\u6717\u666e4\u6708\u5ba3\u5e03\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u7684\u5173\u7a0e<\/a>\u63aa\u65bd\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u9707\u8361\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u5347\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u7f8e\u94f6\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u6b63\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u518d\u5e73\u8861<\/a><\/p>\n

\u91cd\u5927\u8d44\u4ea7\u8f6e\u52a8\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u8d8b\u52bf<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u54c8\u7279\u5185\u7279\u5728\u7814\u62a5\u4e2d\u8fd8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb50\u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u9886\u6da8\u4e3b\u7ebf\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5207\u6362\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

1971\u5e74\uff1a\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u6ede\u80c0\u65f6\u4ee3\u5f00\u542f\u3001\u77f3\u6cb9<\/a>\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u201c\u6f02\u4eae 50\u201d\u725b\u5e02\u7ec8\u7ed3\u2026\u2026 \u65b0\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e3a\u9ec4\u91d1<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u548c\u5b9e\u7269\u8d44\u4ea7(1971-1980\u5e74\u6da8\u5e45417%)\uff0c\u503a\u5238<\/a>\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u8d44<\/a>\u4ea7\u8868\u73b0\u75b2\u8f6f(\u540c\u671f\u4ec5\u6da867%)\uff1b<\/p>\n

1980\u5e74\uff1a\u91cc\u6839\/\u6492\u5207\u5c14\/\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\u653f\u7b56\u843d\u5730\uff0c\u901a\u80c0<\/a>\u89c1\u9876(1980\u5e743\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u8fbe14.8%)\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u529b\u5ea6\u89e6\u9876\u2026\u2026 \u957f\u671f\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e3a\u503a\u5238(1980-1985\u5e74\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4ece16%\u964d\u81f36%)\uff1b<\/p>\n

\"\u7f8e\u94f6\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u6b63\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u518d\u5e73\u8861<\/center><\/p>\n

1989\u5e74\uff1a\u67cf\u6797\u5899\u5012\u584c\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u65f6\u4ee3\u5f00\u542f\uff0c\u901a\u7f29\u8d8b\u52bf\u663e\u73b0\u2026\u2026 \u957f\u671f\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968(1989\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u76f8\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u8dcc\u81f375\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4f4e\u70b9)\uff0c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u8868\u73b0\u57ab\u5e95(\u94dc<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u662f1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u552f\u4e00\u5e74\u5ea6\u6536\u76ca\u4e3a\u8d1f\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7)\uff1b<\/p>\n

2001\u5e74\uff1a9\u00b711\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7206\u53d1\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u5d1b\u8d77\u201d \u65f6\u4ee3\u5f00\u542f\u2026\u2026 \u7f8e\u5143\u548c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8868\u73b0\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u4e3a\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u8d44\u6e90<\/a>\u677f\u5757\u540c\u6837\u8d70\u5f3a\uff1b<\/p>\n

2009\u5e74\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u65f6\u4ee3\u5f00\u542f\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u56de\u8d2d<\/a>\u6210\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u7ebf\u2026\u2026 \u65b0\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968(10\u5e74\u6eda\u52a8\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u57282009\u5e742\u6708\u89e6\u53ca90\u5e74\u4f4e\u70b9)\u3001\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6743\u548c\u6210\u957f\u80a1(2008-2020 \u5e74\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\/\u7535\u4fe1\/\u533b\u7597\u677f\u5757\u5360MSCI\u5168\u7403\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ece24%\u5347\u81f344%\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\/\u80fd\u6e90<\/a>\/\u539f\u6750\u6599\u677f\u5757\u5219\u4ece44%\u964d\u81f320%)\uff1b<\/p>\n

2020\u5e74\uff1a\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01<\/a>\u5bbd\u677e(QE)\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u529b\u5ea6\u7a7a\u524d(\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u5e4556%)\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u957f(\u8d85 50%)\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u5174\u8d77\u201c\u2026\u2026\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e3a\u9ec4\u91d1<\/a><\/span>\u3001\u201d\u4e03\u5de8\u5934\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u6b27\u94f6\u884c<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u80a1(\u901a\u7f29\u7ed3\u675f)\uff1b\u503a\u5238(2020-2023\u5e7430\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8dcc\u5e4550%)\u8868\u73b0\u57ab\u5e95\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u7f8e\u94f6\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u6b63\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u518d\u5e73\u8861<\/center><\/p>\n

\u672a\u6765\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8d44\u4ea7\u8f6e\u52a8\uff1a\u6838\u5fc3\u9884\u5224<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u94f6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u957f\u671f\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\u5c06\u662f\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u76d8\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u2192\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u76d8\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1<\/a><\/span><\/span>\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u7ebf\u4ece\u7cbe\u82f1\u5316\u8f6c\u5411\u5e73\u6c11\u5316\u3001\u4ece\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u5411\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u3001\u4ece\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u8f6c\u5411\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3001\u4ece\u5168\u7403\u5316\u8f6c\u5411\u672c\u571f\u5316\u2026\u2026 \u666e\u901a\u6c11\u4f17\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u8d8b\u52bf\u4f18\u4e8e\u534e\u5c14\u8857<\/a>\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5927\u76d8\u80a1\uff1b\u53e0\u52a0AI\u519b\u5907\u7ade\u8d5b\u7684\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u4f01(\u8fc7\u53bb5\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/a><\/span>\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e91\u670d\u52a1<\/a>\u5546\u53d1\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u8fbe1700\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c2020-2024\u5e74\u5e74\u5ea6\u53d1\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u4ec5300\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5176\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\u6301\u7eed\u6269\u5927)\uff0c\u4e14\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u62df\u5c0630\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u63a7\u5236\u57285%\u4ee5\u5185\u2026\u2026 \u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u76d8\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1<\/span>\u76f8\u5bf9\u5927\u76d8\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u5c06\u8fce\u6765\u91cd\u5927\u957f\u671f\u62d0\u70b9\uff1b<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u2192\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e16\u754c\u65b0\u79e9\u5e8f\u50ac\u751f\u5168\u7403\u65b0\u725b\u5e02\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u8f6c\u5411\u5168\u7403\u518d\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684 \u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9ad8\u70ed\u8fd0\u884c\u201d \u653f\u7b56\u63a8\u52a8\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e \u201c\u9664\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7686\u53ef\u6295\u201d \u4ea4\u6613\u2026\u2026 \u56fd\u9645\u80a1\u7968\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u9886\u6da8\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5c24\u751a\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/span>\u53d1\u5c55\u63a8\u9ad8\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u800c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4e3b\u8981\u751f\u4ea7\u5730\uff1b\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5370\u4e24\u5927\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u4ecd\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u8db3\uff1b<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9700\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u94f6\u884c<\/span>\u80a1\u5df2\u6084\u7136\u521b8\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\u2026\u2026\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u53d1\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d38\u6613\u6218<\/a>\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u5168\u7403\u201c\u901a\u7f29\u7ec8\u7ed3\u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u9886\u5934\u7f8a\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7(\u94f6\u884c<\/span>\u3001\u623f\u5730\u4ea7<\/a><\/span><\/span>\u3001\u6d88\u8d39)\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5c06\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u8d44\u91d1\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8f6e\u52a8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

(\u6765\u6e90:\u5929\u5929\u57fa\u91d1\u7f51)

\"\u7f8e\u94f6\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u6b63\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u518d\u5e73\u8861<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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