{"id":714539,"date":"2026-02-03T18:49:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T10:49:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=714539"},"modified":"2026-02-03T18:49:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T10:49:12","slug":"%e9%bb%84%e9%87%91%e4%b8%8e%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e8%84%b1%e9%92%a9%e5%8a%a0%e5%89%a7%ef%bc%81%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e6%ba%a2%e4%bb%b7%e6%ad%a3%e9%87%8d%e5%a1%91%e5%ae%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?p=714539","title":{"rendered":"\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u201c\u8131\u94a9\u201d\u52a0\u5267\uff01\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u6b63\u91cd\u5851\u5b9a\u4ef7\u903b\u8f91"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%bb%84%e9%87%91\" title=\"View all posts in \u9ec4\u91d1\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u9ec4\u91d1<\/a>\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u59cb\u7ec8\u7ef4\u6301\u7740\u4e00\u79cd\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u5173\u8054\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f20\u7edf\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u74e6\u89e3\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u51fa\u73b0\u5931\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u5468\u671f\uff08260\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff09\u5185\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u8dcc\u5e45\u4e4b\u6bd4\u9ad8\u8fbe7.2\u500d\uff1b\u5728\u534a\u5e74\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u500d\u6570\u66f4\u662f\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8631\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u663e\u8457\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\u4e0e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740\u951a\u5b9a\u91d1\u4ef7\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u5f0f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5931\u6548\uff1f\u5168\u7403<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84\" title=\"View all posts in \u6295\u8d44\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u6295\u8d44<\/a>\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8BCA Research\u53cd\u5411\u6295\u8d44<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5\" title=\"View all posts in \u7b56\u7565\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7b56\u7565<\/a>\uff08Counterpoint\uff09\u7814\u7a76\u670d\u52a1\u4e3b\u7ba1\u4e54\u5e0c\uff08Dhaval Joshi\uff09\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u91d1\u94f6\u4ef7\u683c\u5267\u70c8\u56de\u8c03\u524d\u63a5\u53d7\u7b2c\u4e00\u8d22\u7ecf\u8bb0\u8005\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u91d1\u94f6\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52bf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u80cc\u79bb\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\u6781\u7aef\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u7aef\u884c\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u9006\u8f6c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u671f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;\u5bf9\u6bd4\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u8f6f\u65f6\u9ec4\u91d1\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u4ed4\u7ec6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5177\u4f53\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd1\u671f\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e45\u5ea6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u5408\u7406\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u5e76\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4e00\u6bd4\u4e00\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u8dcc1%\u65f6\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u901a\u5e38\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b26\u5408\u5386\u53f2\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u6da8\u5e45\u4ecd\u663e\u5f97\u8fc7\u4e8e\u8d85\u524d\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u6001\u52bf\u66f4\u662f\u6709\u8fc7\u4e4b\u800c\u65e0\u4e0d\u53ca\u3002&rdquo;\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" align=\"\" border=\"0\" height=\"384\" src=\"https:\/\/imgcdn.yicai.com\/uppics\/images\/2026\/02\/71a534d0a64474fbfa3ae3d5ba7b5296.jpg\" width=\"640\" alt=\"\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u201c\u8131\u94a9\u201d\u52a0\u5267\uff01\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u6b63\u91cd\u5851\u5b9a\u4ef7\u903b\u8f91\" style=\"display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; \" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9ec4\u91d1\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684&ldquo;\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf&rdquo;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9ec4\u91d1\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u745e\u58eb\u767e\u8fbe\u8d44\u7ba1\uff08Pictet Asset Management\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u97e6\u67cf\u777f\uff08Patrick Zweifel\uff09\u8fd1\u65e5\u63a5\u53d7\u7b2c\u4e00\u8d22\u7ecf\u8bb0\u8005\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5bf9<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570<\/a>\u53ca\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u5df2\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636eBCA Research\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u5468\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4ece107.96\u56de\u843d\u81f397.42\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45\u4ec5\u4e3a9.76%\uff1b\u800c\u540c\u671f\u91d1\u4ef7\u5374\u4ece\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f82875\u7f8e\u5143\u98d9\u5347\u81f32\u67083\u65e5\u76844905\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6da8\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc770%\u3002\u82e5\u4ee5\u534a\u5e74\u4e3a\u89c2\u5bdf\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u80cc\u79bb\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u5fae\u8dcc1.38%\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u5374\u66b4\u6da842.84%\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u53d8\u52a8\u500d\u6570\u6bd4\u8fbe\u523031\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u97e6\u67cf\u777f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u6b64\u7c7b\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u5931\u6548\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u5c1d\u8bd5\u8def\u5f84\u3002<strong>\u4e00\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e&ldquo;\u6eda\u52a8\u7a97\u53e3&rdquo;\uff08Rolling Window\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u5373\u89c2\u5bdf\u56e0\u5b50\u53cd\u5e94\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6216\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4ecd\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684&ldquo;\u82b1\u62db&rdquo;\u3002\u4ed6\u89e3\u91ca\u79f0\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u662f\u5c06&ldquo;\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf&rdquo;\u590d\u6742\u5316\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u4ecd\u662f\u4f9d\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u6709\u6548\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u6eaf\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u9891\u7e41\u8c03\u6574\u6743\u91cd\u6765\u9002\u5e94\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5f80\u5f80\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86&ldquo;\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\uff08Omitted Variables\uff09&rdquo;\u8fd9\u4e00\u6839\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u97e6\u67cf\u777f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9610\u91ca\u79f0\uff0c<strong>\u5f53\u524d\u591a\u6570\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u9057\u6f0f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9\" title=\"View all posts in \u98ce\u9669\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u98ce\u9669<\/a>\u6ea2\u4ef7<\/strong>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u6355\u6349\u5230\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6ea2\u4ef7\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5374\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cf\u5316\u91d1\u4ef7\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u4ee5\u6307\u660e\u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u6781\u4e3a\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u91d1\u4ef7\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u8bba\u4fbf\u4f1a\u968f\u4e4b\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5176\u672c\u8d28\u4e0e\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u5766\u8a00\uff1a&ldquo;\u6211\u4eec\u786e\u5b9e\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u7814\u7a76&lsquo;\u6cf0\u52d2\u89c4\u5219&rsquo;\u65f6\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u534a\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u6548\u679c\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9ec4\u91d1\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u535a\u5f08\uff1a\u5229\u591a\u8fd8\u662f\u5229\u7a7a\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9ec4\u91d1\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u7ece\uff1f\u5e02\u573a\u89c2\u70b9\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\uff0c\u591a\u5bb6\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4e0a\u8c03\u4ef7\u683c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u5174\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u4e0e\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u94f6\u884c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u91d1\u4ef7\u4eca\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f86000\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e6%91%a9%e6%a0%b9%e5%a3%ab%e4%b8%b9%e5%88%a9\" title=\"View all posts in \u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229<\/a>\u9884\u8ba1\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u91d1\u4ef7\u5c06\u6500\u5347\u81f35700\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e9%ab%98%e7%9b%9b\" title=\"View all posts in \u9ad8\u76db\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u9ad8\u76db<\/a>\u5219\u9884\u6d4b12\u6708\u91d1\u4ef7\u8fbe5400\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u745e\u94f6\uff08UBS\uff09\u57281\u6708\u5e95\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u6295\u8d44\u6d1e\u5bdf\u4e2d\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u5f3a\u52b2\u8868\u73b0\u5df2\u8bc1\u660e\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u5bf9\u51b2\u5de5\u5177\u53ca\u591a\u5143\u5316\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fc7\u53bb13\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u91d1\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc790%\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u4ecd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u903b\u8f91\u5177\u6709\u6301\u7eed\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff1a&ldquo;\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u4e0e\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5e94\u80fd\u652f\u6491\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u82e5\u653f\u6cbb\u6216\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u6500\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f85400\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9752\u7750\u5b9e\u7269\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u591a\u5143\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u914d\u7f6e\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4f4d\u6570\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u5934\u5bf8\u3002&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u82b1\u65d7\u94f6\u884c\u5219\u63d0\u793a\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u914d\u7f6e\u867d\u7136\u53d7\u5230\u591a\u91cd\u53e0\u52a0\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u98ce\u9669\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea6\u534a\u6570\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u9636\u6bb5\u6d88\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u5206\u6790\u79f0\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae\" title=\"View all posts in \u7279\u6717\u666e\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7279\u6717\u666e<\/a>\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u57282026\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u5e74\u63a8\u52a8<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u56fd\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u56fd<\/a>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b9e\u73b0&ldquo;\u91d1\u53d1\u5973\u5b69&rdquo;\uff08Goldilocks\uff09\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fc4\u4e4c\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52bf\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8f83\u5f53\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u91cd\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u56de\u843d\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u82b1\u65d7\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alphaseek.cn\/?tag=%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8\" title=\"View all posts in \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"tag_link\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9009\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u83b7\u5f97\u786e\u8ba4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5f3a\u5316\u8be5\u884c\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u653f\u6cbb\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u6784\u6210\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u671f\u5229\u7a7a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\u4e3e\u62a5<\/div>\n<div>\n<h4>\u6587\u7ae0\u4f5c\u8005<\/h4>\n<ul> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yicai.com\/author\/100000574.html\"><\/p>\n<li>\n<p>\u9ad8\u96c5<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<p><\/a> 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